This is bad news for American families — Brandon Weichert predicts a depression worse than COVID by year-end, driven by the Iran conflict and weapons shortages.

• The US burned through air defense missiles and precision weapons protecting Israel during the Iran war, and the Israelis themselves were stunned at how wasteful it was.
• These weapons cannot be replaced for years because China controls the rare earth minerals and processing the US needs, and China is blocking access.
• The 60-day Iran ceasefire is just a patch to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and buy political time before the midterms, not a real peace deal.
• Iran will not give up its nuclear material, so after 60 days the shooting war or a strait closure likely resumes, sending oil and shipping costs surging again.
• Diesel is already up 70% and gas up 50% since the war began, and the US strategic oil reserves are expected to hit bottom around July 4, forcing higher prices on food, shipping, and everything else.
• Netanyahu is keeping the war going to avoid corruption investigations and questions about how October 7 happened, so he has no interest in real peace.

Outlook: Stagflation — high inflation, low employment — that the Fed cannot fix, and possibly a lost decade for the US economy.