Iran hit a Kuwaiti air base injuring US service members, and warning signs are piling up that a deal with Tehran is slipping away — bad for markets, oil, and anyone hoping for calm next week.

• Iran's intercepted missile still injured five Americans with falling debris and damaged two expensive US Reaper drones.
• A deal looked close last Saturday, then fell apart within hours as the US struck Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites.
• Trump is reportedly considering a $300 billion infrastructure fund for Iran, though the similar Gaza "Board of Peace" fund sits empty with zero contributions.
• Iran's hardliner faction wants full control of the Strait of Hormuz and refuses any nuclear talks, making a real deal harder.
• The European Central Bank warned Trump's trade and war policies risk a financial crisis, and Canada just slipped into a technical recession.
• Stocks like Robin Hood and SoFi are getting short squeezed, but the Nasdaq 100 could drop back toward 725 on Monday without a deal.

Outlook: If no Iran deal lands soon, expect oil shock risk from Hormuz, more pressure on stocks, and more warnings of recession.