A US-Iran deal looks close, which would be good news for oil markets and the global economy but bad news for Israel, which is trying to kill it.

• Iran would promise no nuclear weapons, open the Strait of Hormuz, and remove sea mines; in return sanctions get lifted and a $300 billion investment fund gets set up, likely funded by Gulf states.
• Iran says it has zero trust in Trump and fears he could pull out at the last minute to look like a war winner.
• Iran disputes Trump's claims that it will dismantle nuclear material or skip tolls in the strait, calling those points missing from the actual draft.
• Israel is pushing hard to sink the deal, hitting Lebanon 75 times in one day and signaling it will not stop its wider Middle East war.
• The deal basically returns things to the Obama-era nuclear agreement that Trump tore up, after months of fighting and tens of billions spent.

Outlook: A deal could be signed within days, but Israeli pressure and Trump's habit of flipping at the last moment mean a return to bombing is still very possible.