Talk of a Tesla–SpaceX merger is heating up, which could be good for Tesla shareholders betting on a payout but is mostly speculation for now.

• The idea: instead of buying Tesla outright, Tesla shareholders would swap their shares for SpaceX shares in a combined company at some set ratio.
• This is one way Elon Musk could tighten his control over Tesla.
• Some traders may be buying Tesla stock now, betting the merger happens and pays off.
• The plan would fold SpaceX, Tesla, Optimus, Dojo, and all the computing power under one company called X Holdings.

Outlook: Nothing is official yet, but a shareholder vote on a merger looks likely to pass if Musk pushes it.