A blunt take that no deal with Iran is possible while hardliners run the country, framed as bad news for hopes of a diplomatic fix.

• The view here: a deal could work if moderates run Iran, but if the IRGC stays in charge, nothing they say can be trusted.
• Iran's navy and air force have been largely wiped out, yet the regime still holds power and keeps threatening its neighbors.
• It is still using small fast boats to plant mines in Gulf waters, as recently as just before Memorial Day.
• Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are as worried about Iran as Israel is.
• The regime has shown it will turn on its own people and strike nearby countries to stay in control.

Outlook: As long as the IRGC runs Iran, expect continued distrust and no real chance of a deal.