New missile exchanges with Iran rattle markets, but stocks shrug it off while Bitcoin takes the hit — bad for crypto holders, surprisingly calm for stocks.

• US forces shot down Iranian missiles and drones and hit back with strikes, while ceasefire talks go nowhere.
• Oil jumped back near $95 a barrel, but that is calmer than expected given the fighting.
• Stocks are up 16% in two months — a rare jump that has happened only a few times since WWII, often before a crash or after a recession.
• The rally is driven by AI hardware stocks like Marvell, Nvidia, and AMD, not broad strength.
• Bitcoin fell to about $66,600 as it became more sensitive to Iran news and broke its usual link to software stocks.

Outlook: No progress expected on the Strait of Hormuz until at least September, meaning higher interest rates and more pain for crypto and rate-sensitive stocks near-term.