A new flashpoint is opening as Iran threatens to jump back into the fight over Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon — bad news for anyone hoping the recent ceasefire holds.

• Iran says it will suspend peace talks with the US and confront Israel directly unless Israel stops bombing southern Lebanon.
• Israel agreed to a ceasefire but has kept striking Lebanon; Hezbollah held back for months and only recently fired back.
• Netanyahu is squeezed on all sides: Trump reportedly told him to ease off Beirut, while hardliners like Bennett and Ben-Gvir want him to hit Lebanon harder.
• Israel wants to keep fighting because Iran came out of the war stronger, now holding leverage over the Strait of Hormuz oil route.
• Even if the war stopped today, oil could jump toward $150–$160, and a wider war would mean far worse economic pain.

Outlook: It now comes down to Trump's call — restart the bombing and risk an oil-driven economic shock, or push for a deal and pull back.