Russia's strike on Kyiv signals it may finally push for a bigger ground offensive — bad news for Ukraine, and a sign the war is escalating, not winding down.

• Russia hit Kyiv with about 800 drones and missiles overnight, mostly targeting military sites, killing 17 people.
• The strikes look like prep for a bigger ground push — but strikes alone don't win wars, and Russia still has to cross the Dnieper River and take Kyiv and Odessa to end it.
• A weapons plant tied to Zelensky was hit, weakening Ukraine's ability to fire back with long-range drones and missiles.
• Russia keeps signaling it wants serious talks, but sees no real decision-maker in Washington or Kyiv to deal with.
• Europe is doubling down — the EU is sending billions for 150 Swedish Gripen fighter jets, which likely get destroyed on arrival and have no pilots to fly them.

Outlook: Expect more Russian strikes on Western-funded targets, and pressure building for a major ground offensive on Kyiv and Odessa if no deal emerges.