US oil supplies have dropped to their lowest level since 2004 because of the Iran conflict, and a sharp gas price spike could be coming within weeks — bad news for drivers, the economy, and Trump's team.

• The Iran war has drained US oil stocks to a 22-year low, and the emergency reserve is near its lowest since the 1980s, leaving no cushion to meet demand.
• Some analysts warn oil could hit $200 a barrel this summer if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed to tankers.
• Gas and grocery prices are up sharply, and the average family is paying thousands more, yet Trump's team keeps calling inflation a short-term blip.
• Prices haven't spiked even higher only because China suddenly cut its oil imports 40% and other countries are rationing fuel and leaning on renewables.
• A new OECD report says the global economy will slow this year even if oil prices have already peaked.

Outlook: Without an end to the Iran conflict or reopened shipping lanes, gas prices and inflation are likely to climb again soon.