US gold is quietly flowing out of the country, a warning sign for the dollar and good for gold owners.

• China won't repeat Japan's mistake of letting its currency jump in value, which crushed Japan for 30 years.
• Instead, China may let gold reprice higher as a quiet escape valve in its standoff with the US.
• The US government still values its 8,000 tons of gold at $42 an ounce, far below the real market price, making its books look far weaker than reality.
• For five of the last six months, gold has been America's single biggest export — bigger than oil, drugs, or aircraft engines.

Outlook: Expect more physical gold to leave the US and gold prices to keep climbing as China sidesteps a direct currency fight.