US forces struck an oil tanker carrying Indian crew while Trump claimed a ceasefire was near — bad for Iran, for the trapped sailors, and for anyone trusting the peace talk.

• US warplanes hit an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman for trying to sail to an Iranian port, breaking the US blockade.
• 24 Indian workers were on board; the ship caught fire and they had to be rescued by another country.
• Trump announced Israel and Iran are moving toward a ceasefire on the same day the US carried out this strike.
• Both Iran and Israel are threatening to keep fighting, so the "ceasefire" looks shaky at best.
• Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed thousands and damaged historic sites, fueling more anger in the region.

Outlook: The blockade and strikes will likely continue, keeping the ceasefire fragile and the wider conflict from cooling down.