Bad news for Middle East stability and oil markets: Iran and Israel traded direct missile strikes, and Trump's claim to control Israel looks empty.

• Iran fired missiles into Israel for the first time in a while, hitting back over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, not over Iran itself.
• Trump publicly told Israel not to strike back and said he "calls the shots" — Israel hit Iran anyway hours later.
• This shows the US either can't or won't restrain Israel, which kills Iran's reason to trust any deal.
• Iran drew a new red line: stop attacking southern Lebanon or the missiles resume — and Israel already restarted strikes there.
• The Houthis joined in, hitting Tel Aviv and banning Israeli ships in the Red Sea; oil and stocks stayed calm anyway.

Outlook: A ceasefire keeps being announced and falling apart, so expect more back-and-forth strikes and rising risk of wider war.