A claim that the Iran conflict will stay cheap and contained gets ripped apart as wishful thinking, bad news for anyone expecting a quick, painless war.

• The prediction that Iran won't close the Strait of Hormuz and that gas prices will keep falling is called naive.
• The pushback points to Iraq and Afghanistan, where "easy" Middle East wars turned into endless ones the US couldn't exit.
• The argument is that crushing Iran serves Israel's goal of weakening Iran's allies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank.
• A viral clip of Iranians supposedly chanting praise for Netanyahu is flagged as a deepfake, not real.

Outlook: Expect more fighting over whether the Iran conflict stays contained, with oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz the key things to watch.