A strategic analysis arguing Iran is winning the war with Israel and the US, gaining power while America loses its grip — bad news for Israel and Washington, good for Iran.

• Iran has shifted from just trying to survive to actively building a regional empire, declaring a new "security belt" from the Persian Gulf to Yemen's Red Sea coast.
• It is now protecting allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis instead of using them as expendable pawns — a sign it's acting like the dominant power in the Gulf.
• Trump keeps saying he's in control and a deal is days away, but Iran is openly ignoring him and Israel defied his order not to strike back, showing his influence is slipping.
• The Houthis are again threatening Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, opening a new front meant to wear Israel down over time.
• A new oil-driven crisis in the world economy is seen as nearly locked in for this summer, which would further strengthen Iran's hand.

Outlook: The conflict is expected to drag on through the summer and into the US midterms, with Iran growing stronger and Israel's position steadily weakening.