Iran struck Israel for the first time in defense of Lebanon, signaling a possible shift in the region's power balance that Israel sees as a threat.

• Iran hit Israel after Israeli strikes on Beirut, the first time it retaliated to defend Lebanon rather than just itself.
• This sets up a possible "new equation": Israel may now have to weigh Iranian retaliation before bombing Lebanon at will.
• The US stayed out of the fighting offensively and likely gave Israel far less missile-defense help than before — a real cost imposed on Israel.
• A US-Iran deal is stuck over money: Iran wants $12 billion of its frozen assets unfrozen, and Trump hates the optics of paying.
• The Trump-Netanyahu rift looks genuine, with Trump leaning on Israel to back down to keep a deal alive.

Outlook: Things have cooled for now and Trump hints a deal could come within days, but the truce is fragile and could break again fast.