Trump is using an Iranian drone attack on a US helicopter to restart the war with Iran — bad news for oil prices, the global economy, and anyone hoping the ceasefire would hold.

• Trump says an Iranian drone lodged inside a US helicopter without exploding, but military experts call the story physically impossible since the drone is as big as the cockpit.
• The ceasefire is now over: the US is striking Iran and Iran is firing ballistic missiles again.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly pushed Trump to attack after he was initially unconvinced.
• Unlike past oil shocks, global oil stockpiles are now very low, so a longer war means much higher oil prices.
• US strikes reportedly hit two water reservoirs in southern Iran, cutting off drinking water for 20,000 people, while Trump's blockade also blocks food and medicine into Iran.

Outlook: If strikes stay near the Strait of Hormuz the war may stay limited, but hits on Iran's energy and chemical plants would trigger a much bigger, harder-to-control escalation.