A war against Iran is going badly for the US and Israel, and it's good news for Iran, which now has the upper hand.

• Trump keeps flip-flopping — threatening to bomb Iran one hour, claiming a deal is near the next, having announced an "imminent" deal dozens of times that never happens.
• Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, which it didn't before the war, and gas prices are rising as a result.
• The war is being framed as a fight over Iranian nukes, but Iran has no nuclear weapons — the real driver is Israel's long-standing push for regime change.
• The fight has exposed the limits of US power: a mid-size country has called America's bluff, and bombing and sanctions haven't forced Iran to back down.
• Public opinion has turned sharply against Israel even as the US government grows more tied to it, and figures like Tucker Carlson now openly attack the war.

Outlook: With Iran holding the upper hand and Israel resisting any ceasefire, there's no easy military exit, and the war looks set to keep dragging on the economy.