Trump says a US-Iran deal to end the war is nearly signed, but the claim looks shaky and another round of fighting is possible — bad news for anyone hoping the conflict is over.

• Trump announced a deal is basically done, then hours later raged on social media that Iran was lying about the terms — the latest of three dozen times he's claimed a deal is close.
• Iran's team reportedly added psychologists to study Trump because they believe he is mentally unstable and erratic, and started tailoring messages to manage him.
• The sticking points are real money: Iran wants $24 billion of its frozen assets unfrozen, but pro-Israel hardliners around Trump refuse to allow any sanctions relief.
• Trump needs a "victory" story, so he's claiming Iran agreed to things it was already doing, like not building a nuke and keeping the Hormuz shipping lane open.
• Iran survived weeks of US and Israeli bombing intact, which makes it look stronger to its neighbors, but a long stalemate could turn Iranians against their own government as the economy stays crushed.

Outlook: Expect more on-again, off-again drama — a fragile deal, renewed strikes, or a slow slide back toward war, with Israel likely shifting to covert operations inside Iran either way.