Negative for the US — the Iran war is exposing the limits of American military power and fracturing Trump's political base.

• Trump has announced an Iran deal dozens of times, but none happened, and the US is back to bombing Iran.
• Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, which it did not before the war, and US gas prices are higher because of it.
• The US bombed Iran's civilian infrastructure — power, water, sewage — openly, which is being called barbaric.
• Israel, not the US, decided when this war started, raising fears that voters have no real control over big decisions.
• Trump has lost major right-wing voices like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Candace Owens over breaking his "no new wars" promise.

Outlook: Expect growing pressure heading into the midterms, with Iran tensions and anti-war anger reshaping both parties.