China's economy is in bad shape and Xi's trip to North Korea signals rising tension with Japan — a negative sign for the region.

• China's economy is doing very badly right now, worse than official reporting admits.
• The government is now blocking reporters from even discussing the economic situation, a sign of how serious it is.
• Xi visited North Korea for the first time since 2019, and the reason points back to Japan.
• The move suggests China is shoring up alliances as friction with Japan grows.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on China's economy and closer China–North Korea ties aimed at countering Japan.