Skeptical take on SpaceX's huge valuation and IPO — bad news for regular investors who may be buying into hype, good for Musk and Wall Street.

• SpaceX is now valued at $2.1 trillion after the biggest IPO ever, pitched to ordinary investors as a bet on Musk himself.
• The pitch asks people to ignore big losses, overpay, and hand Musk total control — fans treat it almost like a cult.
• Boosters claim SpaceX could hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2028 and $7 trillion by 2029, but no company on Earth makes even $1 trillion a year.
• A Tesla–SpaceX merger is seen as likely (80% chance by 2027), which would prop up Tesla's stock and put all of Musk's AI, cars, and rockets under one roof.
• Critics note Tesla's self-driving "brains" are actually owned by Musk's separate xAI, so Tesla depends on another company's tech.

Outlook: A Tesla–SpaceX merger looks likely in the next year or two, keeping the hype going — but the revenue math behind the valuation looks impossible to hit.