A claimed US-Iran peace deal brokered by Pakistan is being called fragile and likely to collapse, which is bad news for anyone hoping the war is really over.

• The deal supposedly ends the war on all fronts, but Israel can blow it up anytime by simply resuming attacks on Lebanon.
• The nuclear issue is left untouched, with talks pushed to a 60-day window after signing — odd, since the nuclear threat was the reason for the war.
• Iran keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz and may set up a toll system, leaving the world worse off than before the war.
• The deal requires the US to force Israel to stop fighting in Lebanon, something it has never shown the will to do.
• Trump and Iran keep accusing each other of lying; this is the 39th time Trump has claimed a deal is close.

Outlook: Expect the deal to stay vague or fall apart, since Israel has both the motive and the ability to wreck it.