Mostly bad news: the fallout from the Iran war is pushing up US food and producer costs, China is squeezing Japan and the US on rare earths, and a frothy SpaceX listing signals a stretched market.

• US inflation is climbing as higher diesel and fertilizer costs hit farmers, threatening a food price spike or another round of farm bailouts.
• China canceled US orders and reaffirmed its rare earth ban on Japan, flexing control over supply chains nobody else can match at scale.
• Japan and the US have no real alternative — rebuilding rare earth supply would cost over a trillion dollars and take a decade.
• SpaceX's IPO made Elon Musk the first trillionaire, but its tiny 5% float and no-lockup insiders make the stock ripe for a crash.
• Producer prices are up across the board, and a K-shaped economy means asset owners win while regular workers fall behind.

Outlook: Next week's Fed meeting is expected to hold rates steady, but any surprise hike could hit bubble-priced assets like SpaceX hardest.