A US-Iran peace framework is close to signing, good news for both governments and the region, but Israel is fighting hard to blow it up.

• The US and Iran have agreed to the framework of a deal expected to be signed Friday, which Trump sees as a legacy achievement.
• Israel bombed the suburbs of Beirut over the weekend to sabotage the talks, crossing a red line for both Iran and the US, and Trump publicly said it should never have happened.
• The big risk: if Israel keeps striking Lebanon after a deal, Iran is likely to hit back, which could drag the US into a war Trump does not want.
• Iran will never give up its missiles and drones, the only thing that protected it in the last two wars, so Israeli demands to disarm Iran are a dealbreaker meant to make the deal fail.
• Even if Trump signs, he may quietly pay Israel off with money, weapons, or other gifts to keep it from sabotaging the peace.

Outlook: Watch Friday for the signing, then watch whether Israel keeps striking Lebanon and whether Trump signals he won't fight on Israel's side.