A US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz looks real this time — good news for oil markets and inflation, bad news for Israel.

• The US and Iran agreed to a framework that extends the ceasefire 60 days while they negotiate a longer peace deal, with signing expected in Geneva.
• The Strait of Hormuz reopens to oil traffic and the US lifts its naval blockade, which should ease gas prices and inflation.
• Iran again promises no nuclear weapon and to dilute its enriched uranium; the US would unfreeze $25 billion in Iranian assets.
• Israel is furious because it wanted to keep fighting, and it says it will stay in southern Lebanon and keep bombing Gaza and Syria regardless.
• Republicans pushed Trump to end the war, fearing high oil prices and bad poll numbers before the midterms.

Outlook: The big question is Lebanon — if Israel refuses to leave and keeps attacking, Trump will likely just pull US forces out and treat any further Israel-Iran fighting as their problem.