A crypto bull is coming this fall, but a sharp drop comes first — bad for "buy and hold" investors, good for active traders who buy the dip.

• A crypto crash is expected in the next few weeks, then a big rally driven by new crypto laws passing this fall and into December.
• Bitcoin is near its 200-week average, a level that has historically led to big gains over the following year or two.
• People who just hold coins forever tend to lose, often forced to sell at the bottom when high gas prices and bills squeeze them.
• Gold, silver, and crypto are falling hard right now because the Fed may have to hike rates again to fight inflation.
• People are putting less into their 401(k)s and retirement accounts, which removes a key prop holding the stock market up.

Outlook: Expect more weakness in crypto and metals near-term, then a sharp rebound as crypto-friendly legislation fuels a year-end run.