A 14-point US-Iran peace framework is on the table, but Israel says it won't follow it — bad news for Lebanon and a major setback for Trump and Israel, a big win for Iran.

• A draft deal would end fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, with the US lifting its blockade and both sides respecting each other's borders.
• Lebanon is named three times in the first paragraph, a sign Iran pushed hard to force the US to rein in Israel.
• Israel calls the deal a disaster and says it won't pull out of southern Lebanon or stop its attacks there.
• Iran walks away the big winner: sanctions lifted, frozen funds released, oil sales restarted, and control over the Strait of Hormuz it can still shut at will.
• This is only the start of a 60-day negotiation, and past Gaza "ceasefires" suggest Israel may keep striking while the world assumes peace.

Outlook: If Israel keeps attacking Lebanon, Iran is likely to hit back and the fighting could reignite — with the key question being whether the US finally restrains Israel.