Bad news for peace hopes: the Ukraine war is escalating and a fragile US-Iran truce could collapse within days.

• Ukraine hit Moscow with one of its biggest drone raids yet, setting oil refineries on fire and wounding people; Russia is promising violent, large-scale strikes back, possibly hypersonic missiles aimed at underground command centers in Kiev.
• The drones are Western-supplied and NATO-guided, so Russia is treating NATO weapons plants — including in Canada and Sweden — as fair targets, raising the risk the war spreads.
• A new US-Iran deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and eased oil fears, but Israel refuses to pull out of Lebanon, which Iran says could kill the agreement.
• JD Vance publicly slapped down Israeli ministers, reminding them most of their defense weapons are American-paid — a sharp, unusual break in the US-Israel relationship.
• Canada's Mark Carney is pouring money and drones into Ukraine and tilting toward the EU, drawing accusations the war is being kept alive for profit.

Outlook: Expect a heavy Russian retaliation on Ukraine soon, and watch whether the Iran deal survives the next few days as Israel resists pulling back from Lebanon.