The ceasefire deal with Iran is being framed as a weak outcome — bad for Iranian protesters and possibly for the West, because the regime survives with its missiles and ability to crack down intact.

• Iran's navy and air force were destroyed, but it still has a huge stockpile of missiles.
• The deal does nothing to stop the regime from killing Iranians who protest in the streets.
• Nothing limits Iran's missile program, so it could build longer-range missiles that threaten the U.S. and Europe.
• The regime itself is still in power, even after taking heavy hits.
• A separate nuclear negotiation is set to play out over the next 60 days.

Outlook: Watch the 60-day nuclear talks — Iran is weaker than before but kept enough to keep bargaining hard.