Mixed news: a new ceasefire is in place, but US intel warns it may not hold, keeping Middle East tensions and oil markets on edge.

• Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a fresh ceasefire, brokered by the US, Qatar, and Iran, lifting hopes for a wider US-Iran deal.
• Fighting keeps flaring anyway — Israeli strikes hit villages in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah drones hit back at Israeli tanks still inside Lebanon.
• US intelligence warned that Netanyahu is likely to undermine the peace deal, as most Israelis back continuing the Lebanon war.
• Iran is tying any deal to Israel pulling out of Lebanon and Gaza, and is pushing to charge ships "insurance fees" to cross the Strait of Hormuz, which could keep oil flows tight.
• The two sides have 60 days to reach a deal; Trump claims Iran already surrendered, but the terms don't look that way.

Outlook: Expect the truce to stay fragile — if fighting in Lebanon continues, the Iran talks could collapse and push oil prices back up.