Russia is set to escalate hard after one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks of the war hit Moscow, which is bad news for Ukraine and anyone hoping the war ends soon.

• Over 200 drones struck Moscow, hitting oil refineries and apartment buildings; Russia says it shot down 555 drones nationwide and at least 17 people were hurt.
• Russia's response may include hypersonic missile strikes on underground command centers in Kiev, where US and NATO officers are said to help run the war.
• Russia sees these attacks as coming from NATO, not just Ukraine, since the drones and targeting rely on Western support.
• Peace talks are stuck on two points: Ukraine giving up Donbas land, and the Western troop "security guarantees" Russia will never accept.
• Marco Rubio publicly accused Zelensky of lying about the terms, saying guarantees only kick in after the war ends, not in exchange for territory.

Outlook: Expect a larger Russian missile barrage on Kiev soon, with no negotiated end in sight as both sides keep fighting.