Bad news for the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia looks set to slide back into war between the government and the Tigray, with the risk of dragging in much of the region.

• Ethiopia's leader Abiy Ahmed just won a rigged re-election that skipped Tigray entirely, tightening his grip toward dictator-for-life.
• The Tigray rebels (TPLF) restored their own breakaway government, started forced military call-ups, and are widely believed to be arming up with help from neighboring Eritrea.
• The fighting was put on hold only because the Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz and cut off Ethiopia's imported fuel — both sides are saving gas to fight.
• A new war could be worse than the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which killed up to 600,000 people; this time Eritrea would fight on Tigray's side and Ethiopia faces other revolts in the Amhara and Oromo regions.
• Outside powers are picking sides — Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia lean one way; the UAE, Israel, and India the other — raising the danger of a wider regional war tied to Sudan and Somalia.

Outlook: If the U.S. and Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and fuel flows again, the brakes come off and open war in Ethiopia becomes likely within weeks.