The shaky US-Iran peace deal is falling apart, which is bad for global shipping, oil markets, and especially for Israel's Netanyahu.

• The Strait of Hormuz briefly reopened, with ship traffic climbing from a trickle back toward normal, then Iran slammed it shut again on Saturday.
• The cause is the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, which the US-Iran deal required to end but neither side controls.
• A Lebanon ceasefire collapsed in under an hour, with Israel launching over 100 more air strikes, so Iran retaliated by closing the strait.
• Iran now holds the upper hand: it keeps its oil flowing while forcing the US to lean on Israel, conceding nothing.
• Netanyahu is trapped at home, with most Israelis saying Iran won the war and both sides of his coalition attacking him.

Outlook: Talks in Switzerland show faint progress, but if shipping stays blocked, Trump and Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham are already threatening to seize Hormuz by force, risking a return to open war.