US-Iran negotiations got off to a rocky start but appear to be limping forward, which is fragile good news for oil markets but far from a done deal.

• Iran agreed to let nuclear inspectors back in and the Strait of Hormuz partly reopened, easing oil and gas prices.
• Trump nearly blew up the talks by threatening to kill Iran's negotiators, who briefly walked out before returning.
• The biggest danger is Lebanon: Israel refuses to pull its troops out, and Iran calls Lebanon a red line that could break the whole deal.
• The US sent few real nuclear experts and is handing the technical details to Qatar, Pakistan, and the IAEA.
• Iran feels it holds the cards, ready to choke off Hormuz again if Israel keeps striking Lebanon.

Outlook: A shaky framework is in place, but Israel's attacks in Lebanon and Trump's erratic threats could collapse the deal at any moment.