US-Iran talks in Switzerland look shaky, which is bad for anyone hoping for a quick deal but a sign that real bargaining may still be happening behind the scenes.

• JD Vance led talks in Switzerland, but Iranian delegates appeared to snub him and one group reportedly walked out of a meeting.
• Trump threatened on social media to bomb Iran harder than before if no deal is reached, and Iran said it does not take the threat seriously.
• Both sides reportedly gave each other 16 days to work out the details, with lower-level negotiators staying behind.
• Quietly good news: 55 ships are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz, close to normal, the first real flow in 100 days.
• Iran's military is gutted — its air force and navy are wiped out — but its drones and rockets are only half depleted, so it can still cause trouble.

Outlook: Expect more public posturing and threats over the next two weeks as negotiators try to turn a vague "understanding" into an actual deal before the July 4th deadline.