US policy toward Israel may be shifting, with Trump reportedly leaning toward cutting aid to rein in Israel — bad for Netanyahu, potentially good for anyone hoping to avoid a wider Middle East war.

• The big fear is Israel turning Iran into a failed state, or even using a nuclear weapon, which would be a disaster for the US and the world.
• Iran is now stronger after the war, which hardliners in Israel see as an existential threat and a reason to keep fighting.
• The push is to take real US aid away from Israel, not just give "strong words," to force it to stop operations in Lebanon and hold a ceasefire deal.
• Netanyahu plans to use pro-Israel senators and right-wing media — funded heavily by AIPAC — to attack Trump and shape any US-Iran deal after the midterms.
• If Israel and Iran fall into full-scale war, Trump would face huge pressure to jump in, but he now seems inclined to let Israel fight alone.

Outlook: A fragile ceasefire holds for now, but Israeli hardliners may try to reignite the war after the midterms, testing whether Trump truly keeps the US out.