Ukraine's deepening strikes inside Russia are pushing toward a dangerous escalation that could end with Russia attacking Europe — bad news for everyone.

• Ukraine is hitting Russian oil and energy targets with drones and missiles, hoping to wear down public support for the war.
• This won't work: years of Russian bombing never broke Ukraine, and Ukraine's bombing won't break Russia, which is still winning on the ground.
• The real danger is that a frustrated Russia attacks a NATO country — the Baltics, Poland, or Romania — to force the attacks to stop.
• If the West hits back with conventional weapons, Russia may use a few nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe, betting NATO won't fire back.
• The US can't meaningfully help Ukraine anyway — weapons stocks were drained by the Iran war, and the industrial base is too weak for a long fight.

Outlook: Russia keeps grinding forward and the risk of a strike on Europe rises the longer Ukraine's deep attacks continue.