A long-view discussion of why the US and Israel keep clashing yet always patch things up — relevant now as Trump and Vance openly snipe at Netanyahu, but the analysis says the alliance is unlikely to truly break.

• Trump is publicly belittling Netanyahu, calling Israel the "small partner" and pushing back on its attacks in Lebanon.
• This split is called an "inflection point," but past flare-ups (Eisenhower, Reagan, H.W. Bush) all got stitched back together.
• The US-Israel bond was weak for decades — Truman opposed a Jewish state, and Zionism was once a left-wing cause before flipping to the right.
• Israel's leverage runs deep: a powerful US lobby, plus quiet nuclear blackmail — the threat that a hardline minister could reach for a tactical nuke if pushed too far.
• The takeaway is that a declining US empire now needs Israel more than it can control it, making real pressure unlikely.

Outlook: Expect more harsh words from Trump and Vance, but no serious cutoff of arms or support in the near term.