Trump's war talk and Israel's push into Lebanon are blowing up his own Iran peace deal — bad for oil markets, US troops, and anyone hoping the conflict ends soon.

• Trump threatened to kill Iran's negotiators and seize the Strait of Hormuz by force, and Iran's team walked out of the Switzerland talks.
• A fragile deal lets ships pass the Strait toll-free for 60 days to ease an oil squeeze, but the US is burning through its emergency oil stockpile to keep prices down.
• Israel says it is keeping southern Lebanon "as long as necessary," and top officials admit they won't leave — the real prize is a $40 billion offshore gas field.
• As long as Israel stays in Lebanon, Iran won't settle, so the war keeps dragging the US back in.
• 8 in 10 Americans want out of the conflict now, but nearly everyone on cable TV is pushing for more war.

Outlook: The truce is likely just a temporary release valve — expect fighting to restart and oil prices to climb once the 60 days run out.