Trump appears to reverse course and end the US-Iran conflict, which is good news for the global economy and markets but a setback for Israel's regional ambitions.

• Trump personally signed a memorandum of understanding to wind down the war, surprising observers who expected a lower-level meeting in Geneva.
• The top priority is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping route for oil that the conflict had threatened.
• The shift seems driven by hard math: there was no military way to control the strait or topple Iran's forces, and the war was rattling markets ahead of the midterms.
• Washington is now pressuring Israel to back off, especially in Lebanon, with rumors of withholding some weapons shipments.

Outlook: A push toward a permanent peace deal is underway, but continued Israeli action in Lebanon could test how serious the US is about ending the fighting.