Tucker Carlson cutting ties with the GOP is bad news for Republican unity, signaling a deeper crack in Trump's coalition after the Iran war.

• Tucker Carlson, a lifelong Republican defender, says he won't back the party anymore because it puts Israel's interests ahead of American voters.
• Marjorie Taylor Greene and other MAGA figures are echoing him, though none are switching to the Democrats.
• The Iran war is seen as the turning point that drained Trump's political capital, much like the Iraq war wrecked George W. Bush.
• Trump's hardline immigration plans are being rolled back: Florida's "Alligator Alcatraz" is closing and ICE is selling off warehouses it bought for detentions.
• The Supreme Court is expected to rule against Trump on two of three big cases, including his attack on birthright citizenship, a sign judges sense his weakness.

Outlook: Expect Trump to lean harder on foreign policy as his domestic power fades heading into the midterms, with the GOP's Israel split widening.