This is good news for Taiwan: by burning through its oil reserves now, China may have undercut its own ability to launch an invasion.

• The Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz and pushed gas prices up worldwide.
• China cut its oil imports sharply, taking on most of the global shortfall, which kept prices from spiking even higher.
• That cut is being covered partly by draining China's strategic oil reserves — the same stockpile it would need to fight a war over Taiwan.
• An invasion would likely trigger a US-led blockade of the Strait of Malacca, where most of China's oil arrives, and reserves might last only about four months.
• Corruption in China's oil industry means those reserves may hold less fuel than Beijing thinks.

Outlook: Now is China's best window to attack Taiwan, but with reserves running down and risks high, an invasion looks less likely in the near term.