A Fed meeting that won't change interest rates could still move markets, depending on what new chair pick Kevin Warsh signals — a wait-and-see moment for investors.

• The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged, so the decision itself is not the story.
• What Warsh says about future plans matters more than what the Fed does this week.
• Gold just fell below a key trend line three days running, the longest such streak since October 2023.
• Last time that happened, the bond market nearly seized up and officials had to step in and buy bonds to calm it.
• That rescue was followed by a big multi-year run-up in gold, stocks, and other risk assets.

Outlook: Markets are watching Warsh's words on Wednesday for hints of trouble in bonds — and a possible repeat of the rally that followed last time.