US-Iran talks toward ending the war are quietly moving forward, which is good news for anyone wanting peace but faces heavy resistance from Israel and Congress.

• A memorandum of understanding set up new mechanisms for Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran included for the first time and regional states like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar helping mediate.
• The US is pushing back on Israel, signaling it will limit Israeli military freedom in Lebanon and beyond, and downgrading the special US-Israel relationship.
• Iran's leadership backs the deal 12-to-1, though hardliners who think the US hasn't suffered enough remain a vocal minority.
• Trump is selling it to his base as a total victory — claiming Iran is left with no military or nuclear program — which may help him pass an unpopular deal.
• Congress could slow things down, since lifting some sanctions needs lawmaker approval, and some Democrats are attacking the deal in ways that could backfire if talks collapse into another war.

Outlook: Expect a long, bumpy process well past 60 days, with daily headlines and tweets as noise while the real negotiation grinds toward a possible transformative deal.