A US-Iran peace deal collapsed almost immediately, and the threat to reopen oil supply chokepoints is bad news for global markets and anyone hoping for stability.

• The US and Iran signed a deal to end the war, but it fell apart within days after Israel kept bombing Lebanon.
• Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz again, which would choke off oil and rattle the world economy.
• The big-picture argument: powerful money interests are trying to shift from a "forever war" business model to a stable one, because you can't build trillion-dollar AI and data centers in a world that's always at war.
• That shift explains the sudden, coordinated criticism of Israel from voices who never criticized it before — setting up an exit from the old war model.
• The bet is that rebuilding, owning ports, and financing infrastructure is now more profitable than war, so the players pushing AI and stability are gaining the upper hand.

Outlook: Expect pressure for a negotiated deal and a possible shake-up in Israel's leadership, as money keeps flowing from weapons toward AI and infrastructure — but near-term oil and market risk stays high while the chokepoint threat hangs over the economy.