The US is stuck in a costly standoff with Iran it cannot win by force, and the smartest move is to walk away — bad news for war hawks, better news for anyone fearing a wider war.

• The Strait of Hormuz was open and calm until the US attacked Iran; now Iran and Oman are setting up tolls to charge for passage.
• The US military cannot seize the strait by force — Iran can track and hit any ship or troops within hundreds of miles using missiles and drones.
• Trump may want peace, but his own circle — the defense secretary, CIA director, and top general — pushed him into the fight and want to keep bombing.
• Israel is driving the war for its own survival and regional dominance, while both Israel and the US are running low on missile interceptors.
• The US is draining its emergency oil reserves to keep prices down and will run out of room in weeks, risking a global slump if the strait stays blocked.

Outlook: No real peace deal looks close, and the longer the US stays, the greater the risk of being dragged back into a much bigger war.