A US–Iran deal to end the war is holding, which is good for oil markets and the region, but hardliners inside Iran could still blow it up.

• Trump and Iran's president signed a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil has fallen below $70 a barrel.
• Iran got terms its enemies call a win — Israel thinks Iran came out ahead — yet Iranian hardliners call the negotiators traitors and want the deal killed.
• The hardline Padari faction fears losing power to moderates if the deal sticks, so they are stoking street protests to sink it.
• The deal keeps almost breaking: Israel still fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Trump threatening to bomb Iran again, and a fight over Iran's $100B-plus in frozen funds that Trump wants spent on US crops.
• A report says Trump may demand a tougher deal or restart the war after the US midterms, feeding Iran's fear that America won't keep its word.

Outlook: The deal holds for now, but hardliners plus more pressure from the US or Israel could collapse it and reignite the war within the 60-day negotiating window.