A confrontation between Israel and Iran is being held back mainly by Trump's willingness to restrain Israel, and the worry is what happens once that pressure fades.

• Iran came out of the recent war stronger, and some Israeli hardliners may see that as reason to strike again before Iran fully recovers.
• Israel has never been seriously reined in by the US before, so cutting aid is seen as the only real way to force it to pause its attacks in Lebanon.
• Netanyahu plans to lean on pro-Israel senators and right-wing media to shape any US-Iran deal, and many of those senators take big money from AIPAC.
• The fear is Israel waits out the US midterm primaries, then pushes the war again once friendly lawmakers feel safe to act.
• If Iran fires back while Israel keeps bombing Lebanon, Trump may not step in to shoot down the missiles, leaving Israel exposed.

Outlook: The longer the ceasefire and talks hold, the harder it becomes to drag the US back into the war — but a hardline Israeli faction could still try to force the issue.