US oil supplies are running dangerously low, and the White House may quietly lift sanctions on Russian oil to keep gas prices from exploding — bad news for anyone hoping inflation stays tame.

• Key US oil storage hubs like Cushing, Oklahoma are nearing "tank bottoms," the point where the system gets fragile and pipelines can start breaking contracts.
• The emergency oil reserve is also draining fast, leaving Washington with few cheap options.
• The Iran conflict has made shipping through the Strait of Hormuz expensive, with tanker costs doubling in a week as Iran reportedly charges tolls to pass.
• Trump is pushing the DOJ to investigate gas stations and oil companies for price gouging, which looks like a way to shift blame off the real supply crunch.
• Behind the scenes, Trump's team is reportedly considering lifting sanctions on Russian oil — the opposite of public policy — because the US needs those barrels.

Outlook: Watch for the US to reverse course and ease Russian oil sanctions in the coming weeks, which would shock the EU as it tightens its own.