The Fed's new chair Kevin Warsh faces a tough choice that could swing markets either way, with inflation and the Iran conflict tying his hands.

• The Fed can hint that rate cuts are coming, which would push stocks, gold, and Bitcoin higher.
• But cutting rates only works if the Iran conflict calms down, since the war is keeping gas prices and inflation high.
• The other path is staying tough on inflation and keeping rates high, which would hurt risky assets.
• A strong jobs report came in nearly double expectations, which markets now read as bad news because it means rates stay high.

Outlook: Until the Iran conflict eases and inflation cools, the Fed is stuck and rate cuts stay off the table.